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Does Long Toss Predict Throwing Velocity?

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Long toss is a hot topic in the baseball world. As more and more of us become exposed to the impressive distance of public long-tossers such as Trevor Bauer, a question arises: exactly how well does velocity correlate with distance? Does long toss predict throwing velocity?

Does Long Toss Predict Throwing Velocity?

With the Pitch F/X system now in all MLB ballparks, we are getting more of a glimpse into the role that spin rate plays on the flight of a thrown baseball. The arm speed of a pitcher is applied to the baseball as two products: linear velocity and spin (rotational velocity). Everyone talks about throwing velocity, but nobody seems interested in discussing spin velocity.

how to long toss pitching

I’m a proponent of long toss as a training tool. But, even as a proponent, I’ve been asking myself if long toss distance correlates to velocity as strongly as some say. And, if not, what are the variables at play? In this article, we’ll look at some physics, discuss spin rate, and determine whether or not long toss is a good predictor of velocity.

Layman Baseball Flight Physics

Spin creates what is known as Magnus force. Magnus force is the force the spin produces perpendicular to the direction of flight. In the case of a curveball with topspin, Magnus force causes a downward break that deceives a hitter. In the case of a fastball, the backspin causes the pitch to resist gravity in proportion to its spin rate.

If spin is high enough to provide lift greater than the weight of the ball, it could make it rise.  Though pitchers are not capable of producing enough spin to make a fastball rise, they are capable of reducing the ball’s effective gravitational weight.

how do pitchers throw in the bullpen

Backspin in long toss produces lift, causing the ball to resist the force of gravity and fly further. At the same initial trajectory and velocity, a throw of higher spin rate will fly farther. Sidespin, another variable in the equation, reduces this effect of hang time by producing a lateral Magnus force, reducing the lift of the ball. Consequently:

Higher velocity, higher backspin, and reduced sidespin produce greater throwing distance.

For the purposes of this discussion, we will assume that sidespin stays constant along with wind, trajectory, grip (4-seam vs. 2-seam) and release height, isolating the variables of backspin and velocity. Dr. Alan Nathan of the University of Illinois, a baseball physics expert, created a batted and thrown ball trajectory tool that I used to calculate the flight of throws with different velocities and spin rates.

For comparison, I took spin rates of 1000rpm to 3500 rpm, which appears to be an acceptable range for most Major League pitchers, though few are capable of 3000+ rpm rates. The average RPM of Major Leaguers lies somewhere between 1200-2000rpm, according to an informal scouring of Brooksbaseball.net

What Is An Optimal Trajectory?

long toss velocity chart

According to the trajectory calculator, maximal distance will be achieved at a launch angle of 30 degrees. Even one degree above or below this angle results in decreased distance.

For example, a throw of 90mph at 2000rpm achieves the following distances with alterations in trajectory:

  • 30 degrees: 368 feet
  • 35 degrees: 364 feet
  • 40 degrees: 352 feet

Chart of Throwing Velocity vs Spin Rate

Next, I plugged in common velocity milestones and different spin rates in increments of 500rpm across the 1000-3500rpm spectrum. We got a distance value for each, and the results are interesting. Have a look:

RPM/Velocity80mph85mph90mph92mph95mph98mph
1000 rpm300326352362378392
1500 rpm308335361372388403
2000 rpm313341368378394409
2500 rpm317344372382398413
3000 rpm319347374384400415
3500 rpm321349376386402417

(Distance in Feet)

The data above was taken from Professor Nathan’s Baseball Trajectory Calculator.

For this experiment, parameters were set to:

  • Launch angle: 30 degrees
  • Release point: 6.5 feet
  • Sidespin: 500rpm (the default value)
  • Wind: 0mph

The Chart and Its Implications

If two throwers have the same release velocity but are at opposite ends of the spin continuum, their distances will vary by nearly 25 feet. This is a big discrepancy.

This means that pitchers can fall anywhere within a 3-5mph hour window of velocity (spin rate unknown). For example, a pitcher with a maximal throw of 400 feet could throw 95mph with a spin rate of 3000rpm. That same pitcher could reach 400 feet at less than 1500 rpm with velocity at 98mph. So, without knowing spin rate we can only predict velocity within this 3-5mph window. But, with most pitchers closer to the center of the bell curve, we’ll see most distance disparities in the 10-15 foot range, which correlates to a lesser velocity range of 2-3mph.

Below are some distances, with the low velocity number being of high spin (3000-3500rpm), and the high velocity number being at a low rate of spin (1000-1500rpm).

  • 300ft: 77-80mph
  • 325ft: 82-85mph
  • 350ft: 85-90mph
  • 375ft: 90-94mph
  • 400ft: 95-99mph

So, Is Long Toss A Good Predictor of Velocity?

The short answer is that it does a good job of predicting long toss velocity. Predicting mound velocity, or even low-trajectory velocity, however, isn’t as certain because we don’t have a predictive model across trajectories. Some throwers may be more skilled at applying their maximum force downhill from a mound, while others may be able to apply maximum force at flat or high-angle trajectories. It’s something that is likely to be unique to the individual and subject to practice time at a given release angle.

Dr. Stuart McGill, in his book Ultimate Back Fitness and Performance, discusses how athletes of highly elastic, high-velocity sports create a unique “pulse” of force. Some athletes are naturally better at creating a force pulse than others, which explains why absolute strength, as shown in the weight room, isn’t always a great predictor of high velocity endeavors.

What this means is that athletes may be in great synchronicity during a specific task, but should they lose that synchronicity on a similar, but different task, their force pulse may change for the worse. This model helps explain why many position players can achieve higher velocities on flat ground (which they practice during games) than when asked to pitch. Pitchers are likely to achieve their highest velocities throwing from the mound.

It’s reasonable to assume that the more one long tosses, the better he becomes at producing a well-timed pulse of force that at the uphill release angle. These mechanics will be slightly different when throwing on a line, or on the mound. So, it would be hard to say how well absolute velocity translates given slight variations in mechanics and the pulsing produced by them.

Yet, because throwing a baseball at varying angles only involves slight variations in mechanics, it may be reasonable to assume that if a pitcher can produce a certain peak velocity during long toss, on the mound or on flat ground, he would be able to transfer it to the other throwing trajectories with additional practice.

It is unlikely that a pitcher would be losing more than a few percentage points of his maximum velocity from one release angle to the next. In my training facility, we have taken radar readings on hundreds of pitchers and we’ve found that velocity is very consistent across different release angles. The biggest variable we see is arm slot.

Does Arm Slot Impact Long Toss Potential?

Yes. Physics tells us that higher arm slots will produce less sidespin and more backspin, and thus farther throws. So, players with higher arm slots should throw consistently farther than those with lower arm slots, who will naturally produce higher sidespin and lower backspin rates.

For more on arm slot and what it means for your velocity potential, check out the video below:

Pitchers with low arm slots may fall well short of the predicted distance that we would expect from a pitcher of similar throwing velocity but who has a higher arm slot.

Takeaways Regarding Pitching Velocity & Long Toss

  • For pitchers with a standard arm slot of ¾ or higher, we can predict their release velocity to a precision of 3-5mph without knowing their backspin rate.
  • For throwers with lower arm slots, this range of possible velocities will expand compared to high arm slot throwers because backspin rates may be lower than the range shown in our chart. Sidearm pitchers, for example, might long toss with 0rpm of backspin, making their ball carry far less than other pitchers at the same throwing velocity.
  • It is unknown how well maximum velocity transfers across different trajectory throws, but it is assumed that the more one practices at a given release angle, the more effective he will be at producing maximum velocity at that angle.
  • We don’t know the effect of training at different release angles, as is common practice for a pitcher who will throw from the mound, flat ground and perform long toss all within a given week. But, from my firsthand radar research of pitchers, I have found it safe to infer that maximum velocity will be consistent, with only slight variations from one release angle to another.

Learn More About Throwing Velocity & Where it Comes From

If you want to improve your throwing velocity, check out the video below and definitely read my very thorough guide to pitching mechanics.

Be sure to check out Dr. Nathan’s work yourself on his website. 

Long Toss and Pitching Velocity FAQ

Does long toss increase velocity?

Yes and no. Throwing in general is the main activity a pitcher needs to do consistently if he wants his velocity to increase over time. Long toss teaches lots of good things – how to use the legs, go uphill, stay closed, use the front side, and be accurate over long distances. But the stimulus of throwing a ball far doesn’t exactly lead to more velocity – it’s more of a display of the velocity you currently have today. A combination of throwing, weight training, arm strengthing, proper flexibility and mobility and explosive exercises will help increase velocity together.

How hard do you have to throw to throw 300 feet?

In the low-80s is a good estimate. Check out the velocity chart in this article that uses physics data from one of the world’s baseball physics experts, Dr. Alan Nathan. His calculator of fly ball distance is a great estimator, and it shows that somewhere between 77-82 is needed to throw approximately 300 feet.

Can you long toss every day?

No – two times per week is about right, with three being acceptable some of the time, as long as intensities aren’t max-effort. You can’t stress your arm out like crazy everyday, especially if you’re also pitching a few innings or bullpens each week, and are also playing catch. It’s good to throw 5-6 days per week, but some of those days needs to be low-intensity.

References:

Blewett, William. (2013) The Science of the Fastball. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co.

McGill, Stuart. (2004) Ultimate Back Fitness and Performance.

Nathan, Alan. (2012) Baseball Trajectory Calculator Retrieved from: http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/trajectory-calculator.html

16 thoughts on “Does Long Toss Predict Throwing Velocity?”

  1. It certainly varies a lot from long toss to the mound, in part because of release point. We have very few guys who can long toss a ball 350 feet, but nearly all of our pitchers can throw a ball 90 mph from the mound, and low 90s + from a crow hop into a radar gun. In recent testing, we had 4 pitchers throw the ball 98 mph+ from a crow hop, and not one has ever thrown a ball 400 feet. I think part of this has to do with the leverage one can generate depending into their release point. So if you can throw a ball 85mph at an angle of 30 degrees, you can most certainly throw harder than 85mph at a shallower angle simply due to the leverage factor and time applying force to the baseball. This is why balls spiked into the ground towards glove side often have the highest velocities vs. balls left up and arm side.

    I think an easy way to visualize this is thinking about swinging a sledgehammer down at a target. If that target was up at chest height the amount of leverage you could create and time applying force would be much lower than if your target (i.e. release point) was at the ankles. (If you remember the sledgehammer contests at state fairs, the trick is to hold it all the way at the very edge of the handle to maximize the leverage and get a high swing overhead to maximize force application time).

    Other pitchers can long toss relatively far (because of good footwork) but then fail to generate any momentum from the mound. One of our guys long tosses 250 feet but throws 93-96 off the mound. He long tosses regularly but can’t generate the same coordinated momentum from his crow hop as he can off the mound. Footwork can make or break your long toss numbers. The same exact arm could throw 85 mph with crappy footwork or 95mph with very quick, coordinated footwork. One of the other reasons it’s so hard to extrapolate mound velocity from long toss velocity.

    I definitely agree with you that there are no absolutes. Really neat experiment.

    1. I agree that there’s a lot of variability. But, if you’re saying that everyone throws harder downhill because of longer contact time with the ball, I disagree. That theory would leave everyone throwing harder downhill than they could long toss, and there’s just as many counterexamples there as well Barry Zito’s one. I’m another – the trajectory calculator puts me somewhere between 92-95mph. I’ve observed all of those speeds on the mound except for 95. But, by your theory I’d be exceeding them by a wide margin, which hasn’t been the case.

      I think it’s still just a learned pulse – that’s my theory. I also am not certain the contact time with the ball is that much less when throwing uphill. I do agree that, in general, balls down are harder than balls up. But, it still depends. My hardest throws are line drives – I can throw almost 330 on a line that doesnt exceed maybe 12 feet. I only throw 50 feet further at max trajectory. There’s just a lot of variables, which was your central point anyway. Good comment, Woolverton!

  2. Which statement is true, “I throw hard because I throw far” or ” I throw far because I throw hard”. I’m with you Dan, long toss distance is hard to correlate to throwing velocity. Lots of variables there. Another question, does throwing long toss increase throwing velocity? Or is it the intent that increases the velocity and not the distance?

    1. You know, I see a lot of value in long toss. It’s a very valuable tool for fixing low-elbow throwing mechanics; it’s hard to throw uphill with a low elbow. I also like that it teaches good back leg weight shift and helps keep throwers back longer. Those are beside your question.

      I know the intent is there, and it’s valuable for that reason. I think throwing at different angles is akin to other exercise variations – there’s a multitude of different squat variations that all stress the system in a different way. Louie Simmons stresses that these variations all build up the traditional back squat. If we consider long toss a pitching variation used to provide a different stimulus, which is very reasonable, then we could say that there’s value in that. The body habituates to stimuli. While Dick Mills says that we should follow specificity above all else, the training world has proven that variability in training is also crucial for continued gains via a new training stimulus.

      The whole “does it increase velocity” is kind of vague. Some people differentiate between uncovering already possessed potential (I assume intent falls under this) and creating a higher potential capacity. I’m confident that long toss does the former, but the verdict is out on the latter. If you uncover higher potential, then throw at that higher velocity more often, your body should get used to it. That to me seems like a genuine increase. Again – it’s hard to find absolute causation.

  3. To me, the answer doesn’t really matter (which I happen to agree with) but rather the methodology that went into this analysis, which was very well done. Good job!

    1. Thanks, Kyle. The velocity thing is finicky. I’ve actually never broken 91 when long tossing with a radar gun, though I rarely do that. On one such day, I threw through one goalpost from beneath the other and threw pulldowns that were almost cuttable, carrying 90+ yards. But, few of those pulldown throws broke 90. The Stalker guns are finicky outdoors, but it still left me confused. Perhaps spin rate accounted for it.

  4. So if a ball can carry more with more backroom, then maybe it can register at a higher velocity. You do havebthe exception with side farmers who throw 95+ but thats pitching velo and not long toss velo. I read a study that stated velocity actually decreases a bit the further out you go. It was an ASMI study and it said thatafter 180 ft, the velo decreases. I still find value in long toss though.

  5. This is one of the best written articles on long toss that I have come across. Dan, during your rehab and throwing process coming back from your second tommy john, how much did you long toss ? Your videos on YouTube have you at 93-94 tops. Was long toss helpful in your velocity gains during this process? If not, how far did you go out?

    1. Carter, First – Thank you. Second – I was not able to throw at a high trajectory at high velocity without pain. I can coast out to 270 or so just flicking the ball (only takes 75mph or so to do so) but beyond that, when I had to put armspeed into it, pain came on pretty strongly.

      So, I kept trajectories low – balls that would be just over a cut-off man’s head. I can throw a ball 300-330 at this height.

      Really though, I stayed indoors for most of my rehab and threw to a radar gun. I cherished getting outside but was only clear of the throwing program from I think June 1st on, which meant by that time I had to spend most of my time on the mound sharpening things up to tryout for teams in late August. Had the timeline been more loose, I likely would have spent more of my summer trying to stretch it out.

  6. One factor for long-tossing in this article that appears to be missing is temperature. (Weather) A few weeks ago in Colorado, I was able to throw 300 feet in 50 degree weather, and the other day throw 330 feet in 80 degree weather. Air is much more dense in cooler weather, and hot air rises.
    Thanks for the good read!

  7. Interesting read. I was always fascinated when I redshirted at a JC and the pitchers would long toss nobody even came close to me. Yet, the majority of them threw harder than me. Couldn’t understand then but now with so much information out there (this was back in mid 90’s) it makes perfect sense.

    I would top out around 88mph (not from the mound) but I could very easily throw the ball more than 360 feet while the harder throws would be well short of that mark. Another odd thing was I knew back then that throwing straight over the top I could throw farther than my traditional 3/4 arm slot (yea i was a lefty).

    One thing that I wish I could have figured out back then was generating more power from the mound. Generating the power to reach 88+ mph was a lot easier and maintainable than the power I was producing from the mount (82-85).

    Makes a lot more sense now, seeing those big boys throwing 90+, throwing 2 seamers in long toss trying to reach long lengths haha. Here was this 6 foot, buck 50 tapping 88mph throwing balls out of the ballpark, made good comedy back then. Felt good too!

  8. Daniel Last Name

    Read the entire article and honestly it seems like these guys are just guessing and don’t have a clue. We have 5 pitchers who all throw 80-82 and lined them up for long toss with the 30 degree angle in mind. Not one of them came close to throwing the ball 300 ft. The longest throw was 272 feet and they were all in the 260-270 range with multiple throws by all 5 guys. We then had a 90 mph kid make some throws and they were all 315-325.

    1. Maybe the 90mph wasn’t throwing 90mph during longtoss, and the same for the 80-82mph kids. The tables I presented were based on physics, and statcast generally backs them up. Every pitcher’s arm angle and other factors also affect it. Moral of the story is that using long toss as a radar gun isn’t accurate or very useful in general. I threw a ball 380 feet and never threw over 94 in a game.

      1. Curiosty Killed the Cat

        Would it be safe to say instead of using long toss for a radar gun, can we use it to gauge improvement? Does an improvement of long toss distance correlate to mound velo? Simple logic would imply yes but as we know not everything is as it seems on the surface. Is there any studies on this, I wonder?

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